Central Holdings (002129): Performance growth in line with expectations PV profitability continues to increase
Event: On October 8, 2019, the company released the first three quarter results forecast.
The company expects net profit attributable to mothers to be 6 in the first three quarters.
12 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.
The net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter was 2.
6 billion, an annual increase of 82.
Key points of investment: The performance growth rate is in line with Shen Wanhongyuan’s expectations. A low base brings high single-quarter growth.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the company carried out strict cost control and lean management, superimposed photovoltaics, and continued release of semiconductor’s advantageous production capacity, and the company’s overall operating cost was significantly reduced.
The company’s monocrystalline wafer market share has been continuously expanded, its bargaining power has been enhanced, and its profitability has continued to increase.
In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s net profit attributable to mothers increased by 50 in the second quarter.
15% and 51.
The company’s performance growth in the third quarter increased significantly to 82.
74%, benefited from the continuous improvement in production and sales scale and profitability, which also caused the company’s performance in the third quarter of 2018 to be affected by policy changes, and the current base was low (net profit attributable to the mother was 1.
The capacity of photovoltaic wafers has steadily expanded, and the leader has been consolidated.
In 2018, the company’s monocrystalline silicon wafer output exceeded 3 billion, with a market share of more than 30%, ranking first in the industry.
As of July 2019, the company’s photovoltaic wafer capacity has exceeded 30GW, and the total capacity is expected to exceed 56GW after the fifth phase of the project is put into production.
Relying on the industry-leading research and development strength, the company successfully broke through the 12-inch large-diameter photovoltaic crystal technology and has applied for hundreds of patented built-in technical barriers.
The application of M12 large silicon wafers will save non-silicon costs of about 22% for downstream battery customers, promote cost reduction and increase efficiency of the entire industry chain, and accelerate parity on-line access.
With the release of the company’s related capacity and cooperation with downstream battery customers, the market share of M12 large wafers will increase rapidly in the second half of 2020.
The expansion of large-scale semiconductor wafers is progressing steadily, and the 12-inch project is expected to start production in 2020.
In the first quarter 合肥夜网 of 2019, the company’s first 12-inch semiconductor polishing wafer production line has been put into production.
In the first half of 2019, the Tianjin plant’s 8-inch silicon wafer expansion project has achieved the designed capacity; the 12-inch test line project was produced in February and continued research and development work; the Yixing plant is expected to start production of the 8-inch production line and the 12-inch project in the second half of the yearThe equipment is expected to be moved in in the fourth quarter of 2019, and production will begin in the first quarter of 2020.
After the large-scale semiconductor wafer project is put into production, the company will achieve an 8-inch production capacity of 1.05 million wafers / month and a 12-inch production capacity of 170,000 wafers / month, becoming the leading 杭州桑拿网 domestic semiconductor silicon material.
Keep the profit forecast unchanged and the rating unchanged: The company is a national team of semiconductor materials, shouldering the historical responsibility of large silicon wafer domestication, and it also belongs to capacity between photovoltaic single crystal silicon wafers.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will be 11 in 2019-2021.
95 ppm, corresponding EPS is 0.
54 and 0.
72 yuan / share.
At present, the corresponding PEs are 31, 23 and 18 times, respectively, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk warning: PV demand growth is lower than expected; semiconductor large wafer customer certification is lower than expected